Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3 points.
The model projects the Ravens as the most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
After taking on 11.1% of his team's carries last season, Justice Hill has had a larger role in the running game this season, now sitting at 23.1%.
Justice Hill has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offensive approach to lean 2.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Ravens.
Opposing squads have run for the fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 60.0 per game) vs. the Lions defense this year.
The Detroit Lions linebackers project as the 4th-best LB corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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