Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-118/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
After taking on 11.1% of his offense's carries last season, Justice Hill has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, currently accounting for 23.7%.
Justice Hill has rushed for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (32.0) this year than he did last year (19.0).
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's DE corps has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.
This year, the anemic Tennessee Titans run defense has surrendered a massive 3.89 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's running game: the 22nd-biggest rate in the NFL.

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