Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 12:56 AM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Justice Hill's ground efficiency (5.99 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league this year (91st percentile among running backs).
Justice Hill has been among the leading running backs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a terrific 4.21 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 41.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints defensive ends grade out as the 3rd-best group of DEs in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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