Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 28, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Ravens to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Justice Hill's ground efficiency (5.81 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (88th percentile among running backs).
Justice Hill has been among the leading running backs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 4.21 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 94th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst collection of DEs in football this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.1 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justice Hill to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (6.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.2% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

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