Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+100/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 30th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least yards in the league (just 99 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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