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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In this week's contest, Justice Hill is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.6 targets.
  • Justice Hill has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (12.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.9%).
  • Justice Hill's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteable boost in his receiving talent over last year's 1.8 mark.
  • Justice Hill's 94.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a noteable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 77.4% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
  • Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.52 seconds per play.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher ground volume.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of LBs has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.

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