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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -156.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In this week's contest, Justice Hill is projected by our trusted projection set to slot into the 80th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.6 targets.

Justice Hill has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (12.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.9%).

Justice Hill's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year signifies a noteable boost in his receiving talent over last year's 1.8 mark.

Justice Hill's 94.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year shows a noteable improvement in his pass-catching ability over last year's 77.4% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.52 seconds per play.

Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally lead to decreased passing efficiency, reduced air attack volume, and higher ground volume.

As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of LBs has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the league.

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