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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -109.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.

Justice Hill has been more involved as a potential target this season (39.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (24.6%).

In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.

Justice Hill's 2.1 adjusted receptions per game this season shows a noteworthy improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 0.9 rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.

At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.

This year, the imposing Seahawks defense has allowed a measly 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.

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