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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 6

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +103 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).

Justice Hill has been used more as a potential target this year (34.8% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (24.6%).

Justice Hill has been one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching an exceptional 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 100th percentile.

The Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (83.3%) versus RBs since the start of last season (83.3%).

The Titans linebackers project as the 6th-worst group of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 52.2% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.

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