Justice Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-118).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 6th-most passes in the league (39.0 per game) this year.
Justice Hill has been more involved as a potential target this season (39.7% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (24.6%).
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Ravens profiles as the 6th-best in football this year.
Justice Hill has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (9.0) this year than he did last year (4.0).

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 50.2% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Ravens.
Justice Hill has posted a paltry -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 8th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Justice Hill is positioned as one of the least efficient receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs, averaging just 4.30 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.

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