Justice Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens offensive blueprint to lean 3.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Justice Hill has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this season (37.4% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (24.6%).
When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.
Justice Hill rates as one of the most reliable receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing a fantastic 100.0% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 51.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.13 seconds per snap.
When talking about air yards, Justice Hill grades out in the lowly 7th percentile among running backs this year, accruing just -6.0 per game.
With a poor 4.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (16th percentile) this year, Justice Hill has been as one of the worst RB receiving threats in the league.