Justice Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 8.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Justice Hill has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching a terrific 100.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Justice Hill has accrued a puny -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 11th percentile among RBs.
Justice Hill's 3.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the league: 18th percentile for RBs.
Justice Hill has been among the weakest pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging just 4.0 yards per game while checking in at the 17th percentile among RBs.