Justice Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Ravens offense to lean 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
Justice Hill's 41.6% Route Participation Rate this year shows a remarkable gain in his air attack usage over last year's 24.6% figure.
The Ravens offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Bengals safeties rank as the worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Ravens to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Ravens are anticipated by the predictive model to run only 62.8 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-fewest on the slate this week.
In regards to air yards, Justice Hill grades out in the lowly 17th percentile among running backs this year, with just -2.0 per game.
Justice Hill's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 100.0% to 93.5%.

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