Justice Hill Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5-point advantage, the Ravens are favored this week, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.
After taking on 11.1% of his offense's carries last season, Justice Hill has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, currently accounting for 23.7%.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Tennessee's DE corps has been easily exploitable this year, profiling as the 4th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are expected by our trusted projection set to run only 63.2 total plays in this contest: the 10th-fewest among all teams this week.

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