Julio Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 58.4% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Julio Jones has been incorporated much less in his team's passing offense.
Julio Jones's pass-catching performance tailed off this season, totaling a measly 1.2 adjusted receptions vs 2.4 last season.
Julio Jones profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football, hauling in just 58.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 12th percentile among wide receivers
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.