Julio Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

Favors Under

Julio Jones has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (55.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (69.8%).
Julio Jones's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 55.7%.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.