Julio Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Completion% in the league (68.9%) to WRs this year (68.9%).

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Julio Jones has been much less involved in his offense's pass attack this year (10.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (16.0%).
Julio Jones's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 54.2%.

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