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Julio Jones

Julio Jones Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+190/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -210 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The Cleveland Browns pass defense has surrendered the 10th-highest Completion% in the league (68.9%) to WRs this year (68.9%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.

Julio Jones has been much less involved in his offense's pass attack this year (10.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (16.0%).

Julio Jones's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 65.9% to 54.2%.

More Julio Jones Player Props

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