Julio Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 1.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Brian Johnson now calling the plays.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Philadelphia Eagles ranks as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Julio Jones grades out as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging an outstanding 5.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.64 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
The Cowboys defense has surrendered the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 117.0) to wide receivers this year.
The Cowboys pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (53%) vs. wideouts this year (53.0%).

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