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Julio Jones

Julio Jones Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers

Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Eagles are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 8th-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 58.4% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The 7th-most plays in the league have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles this year (a staggering 60.9 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.

The San Francisco 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (38.3 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the Eagles to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

After averaging 65.0 air yards per game last year, Julio Jones has seen a big downtick this year, currently averaging 5.0 per game.

With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) from last year to this one, Julio Jones has been incorporated much less in his team's passing offense.

Julio Jones's 5.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year marks a remarkable regression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 32.0 mark.

Julio Jones profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football, hauling in just 58.8% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 12th percentile among wide receivers

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