Julio Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.4 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 3rd-highest Completion% in the NFL (71.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.9 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
Julio Jones's 27.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 41.9.
Julio Jones's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.9% to 59.0%.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has surrendered the 9th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 141.0) vs. wideouts this year.

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