Julio Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.
Julio Jones has totaled significantly more air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Julio Jones has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (55.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (69.8%).
Julio Jones's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 55.7%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.13 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

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