Julio Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 28, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-532).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +323 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +300.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 128.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 61.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 6th-most in football.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 10th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on a measly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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