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Julio Jones

Julio Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 14

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Julio Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+352/-687).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -682 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -687.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense to be the fastest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 25.22 seconds per snap.

Julio Jones has totaled significantly more air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat-padding.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects Julio Jones to be much less involved in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (13.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (18.2% in games he has played).

Julio Jones's 32.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 43.1.

Julio Jones's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 55.7%.

The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 9th-least TDs through the air in football to WRs: 0.75 per game this year.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

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