Julio Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+349/-676).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -470 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -676.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Julio Jones has accrued far more air yards this season (71.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Julio Jones to be a much smaller part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (11.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (19.4% in games he has played).
Julio Jones's 31.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 43.1.
Julio Jones's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 55.7%.

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