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Julio Jones

Julio Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Julio Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+291/-508).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +303 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +291.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.

Julio Jones has posted quite a few more air yards this season (63.0 per game) than he did last season (58.0 per game).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Julio Jones grades out in the 88th percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.

The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.3 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.

THE BLITZ projects Julio Jones to be much less involved in his offense's pass game near the goal line this week (14.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (19.4% in games he has played).

Julio Jones's 30.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 41.9.

More Julio Jones Player Props

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