Julio Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+364/-726).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -709 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -726.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks linebackers rank as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Julio Jones to be a much smaller part of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (10.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.7% in games he has played).
Julio Jones's 27.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 41.9.
Julio Jones's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.9% to 52.9%.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wide receivers this year (63.1%).

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