Julio Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-407).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +262 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
Julio Jones has been responsible for a monstrous 25.6% of his team's air yards since the start of last season: 82nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.6%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (57.6%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.