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Julian Hill

Julian Hill Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 15

Houston Texans vs Miami Dolphins

Julian Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Dolphins have called the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.

The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

Julian Hill has put up quite a few more air yards this year (10.0 per game) than he did last year (2.0 per game).

Julian Hill's 9.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 3.0.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

With a lackluster 11.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (22nd percentile) this year, Julian Hill has been among the bottom pass-catching tight ends in football.

Julian Hill has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in just 65.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 25th percentile.

This year, the tough Texans defense has given up a feeble 62.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the lowest rate in football.

The Houston defensive ends grade out as the 6th-best DE corps in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

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