Julian Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Julian Hill

NFL · Player Props

Julian Hill

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Julian Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
The Raiders pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (81.5%) to tight ends this year (81.5%).
The Raiders safeties project as the 4th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 14-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 53.3 per game on average).
With a lousy 1.4% Target% (20th percentile) this year, Julian Hill has been as one of the TEs with the highest volume in the NFL.
Julian Hill has totaled a meager 2.0 air yards per game this year: just 24th percentile among TEs.

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