JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-103/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been used less as a potential target this year (82.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (69.7%).
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to garner 6.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The weatherman calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers safeties grade out as the 2nd-best group of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.