JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 11, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+113/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to earn 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 75th percentile among WRs.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a more integral piece of his team's passing game this year (18.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (13.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's play as a receiver has improved this season, totaling 4.7 yards per game vs just 2.5 last season.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.4% to 75.2%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.