JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+114/-157).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
This year, the shaky Washington Commanders defense has surrendered a massive 203.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the most in the league.
The Commanders pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency versus wide receivers this year, surrendering 10.29 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the most in football.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Juju Smith-Schuster's 47.3% Route Participation% this year conveys a remarkable drop-off in his pass attack workload over last year's 81.2% figure.
Juju Smith-Schuster has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (24.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Juju Smith-Schuster has notched significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (62.0).