JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 134.7 plays on offense called: the most among all games this week.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.2 per game) this year.
This year, the feeble Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a monstrous 193.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-most in the league.
The Chargers pass defense has shown poor efficiency versus wideouts this year, allowing 9.22 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the New England Patriots to pass on 55.5% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Juju Smith-Schuster has been a much smaller part of his team's passing attack this season (12.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (18.3%).
After averaging 44.0 air yards per game last season, Juju Smith-Schuster has undergone a big decline this season, now sitting at 24.0 per game.
Juju Smith-Schuster's 19.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a meaningful decline in his receiving proficiency over last season's 62.0 rate.
Juju Smith-Schuster's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 80.5% to 67.2%.