JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+155/-216).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -197 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -216.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack near the end zone this week (14.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (5.3% in games he has played).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 59.4% to 80.0%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
JuJu Smith-Schuster grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to WRs since the start of last season (62.0%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.