JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+149/-206).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +151 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.0% to 78.9%.
The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) vs. WRs this year (62.3%).
The Houston Texans defense has given up the least passing TDs in football to wideouts: 0.31 per game this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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