JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

reorder

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game near the end zone this week (17.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.8% in games he has played).
JuJu Smith-Schuster's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 60.0% to 78.0%.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.50 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.