JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+119/-161).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 61.9 plays per game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.9% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 40.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 28.8.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's ball-catching skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 59.4% to 78.8%.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (63.1%) to wideouts this year (63.1%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.