JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+104/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +178 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.5 plays per game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved passing offense effectiveness when facing better conditions in this week's game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to be a more important option in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (15.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
JuJu Smith-Schuster grades out in the 1st percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 10th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-fastest in football since the start of last season.