Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Kelley to garner 15.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Kelley to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (59.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.8% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
The Tennessee Titans defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing just 3.47 yards-per-carry.
The Tennessee Titans safeties profile as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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