Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 23.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Joshua Kelley has been a more integral piece of his team's ground game this year (33.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (22.6%).
Opposing squads have rushed for the most adjusted yards in football (155 per game) vs. the Broncos defense this year.
The Denver Broncos defensive tackles grade out as the 8th-worst group of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 39.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
The Los Angeles offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.

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