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Joshua Kelley
NFL · Player Props
Joshua Kelley
RB · Los Angeles Chargers
Rushing Yards
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023 Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC
NFL Props Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -105.

Favors Over
  • The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
  • With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
  • After comprising 22.6% of his team's run game usage last year, Joshua Kelley has played a bigger part in the running game this year, now accounting for 33.5%.
Favors Under
  • Right now, the 5th-least run-centric offense in the league (34.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
  • The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
  • The Patriots defense has had the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.77 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
  • The Patriots safeties grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
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