Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offensive approach to tilt 2.1% more towards the ground game than it did last season (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Chargers are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on running than their typical game plan.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
After comprising 22.6% of his team's run game usage last year, Joshua Kelley has played a bigger part in the running game this year, now accounting for 33.5%.

Favors Under

Right now, the 5th-least run-centric offense in the league (34.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Chargers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year at blocking for the run game.
The Patriots defense has had the 3rd-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, yielding just 3.77 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Patriots safeties grade out as the best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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