Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-114/-114).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
With a remarkable record of 3.11 yards after contact (76th percentile), Joshua Kelley stands among the toughest RBs in the league this year.
When it comes to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Baltimore's unit has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 36.3% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
Our trusted projections expect Joshua Kelley to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game in this contest (24.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (34.9% in games he has played).
When talking about executing run-blocking assignments (and the impact it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Los Angeles Chargers profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year.

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