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Joshua Kelley

Joshua Kelley Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos

Joshua Kelley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+334/-630).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +348 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +334.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.

The Denver Broncos defensive ends grade out as the worst collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the least run-centric offense in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 37.9% red zone run rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the worst in the NFL this year at blocking for rushers.

Opposing teams have run for the 5th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.40 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense this year.

The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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