Joshua Kelley Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 2:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+426/-953).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +439 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +426.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the league (1.40 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 37.1% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Kelley to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game near the end zone this week (9.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
Joshua Kelley has run for 0.00 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in the league among RBs (1st percentile).
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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