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Joshua Kelley

Joshua Kelley Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins

Joshua Kelley Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+325/-605).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -518 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -605.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.

The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least run-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 34.1% red zone run rate.

The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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