Joshua Kelley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
Joshua Kelley has been more involved as a potential target this season (43.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (23.1%).

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Joshua Kelley has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, hauling in a mere 57.3% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 8th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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