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Joshua Kelley

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers

 
 
 
Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Joshua Kelley's 33.8% Route Participation% this year marks a significant growth in his pass attack usage over last year's 23.1% figure.
  • Joshua Kelley has put up a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • The New York Jets defense has yielded the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (41.0) to running backs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
  • This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
  • The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
  • Joshua Kelley's 1.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies an impressive drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last season's 8.0 rate.

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