Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Joshua Kelley's 33.8% Route Participation% this year marks a significant growth in his pass attack usage over last year's 23.1% figure.
Joshua Kelley has put up a monstrous 1.0 air yards per game this year: 76th percentile among RBs. (This may not sound very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The New York Jets defense has yielded the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (41.0) to running backs this year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
Joshua Kelley's 1.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season signifies an impressive drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last season's 8.0 rate.

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