Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Joshua Kelley has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching just 55.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 8th percentile.
Joshua Kelley has been among the least effective pass-catchers in the league among running backs, averaging a mere 3.99 yards-per-target since the start of last season while ranking in the 24th percentile.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 7th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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