Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 9th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 63.2 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Joshua Kelley to accumulate 3.4 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Joshua Kelley has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching a measly 58.2% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 10th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has excelled when opposing RBs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.98 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.

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