Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 27, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 66.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joshua Kelley has compiled a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 75th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
Joshua Kelley has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among running backs, catching a mere 70.8% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties grade out as the 6th-best safety corps in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.