Joshua Dobbs TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+205).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may throw the ball less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The Cardinals are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to pass on 59.8% of their downs: the 10th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 27.06 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
In regards to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Cardinals ranks as the 5th-worst in the league this year.
Joshua Dobbs is positioned as one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL this year with a 61.7% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 19th percentile.
This year, the formidable Ravens defense has allowed a paltry 67.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.
This year, the daunting Ravens defense has yielded a feeble 0.57 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the smallest rate in the NFL.

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